CHUBBY FIRE CALCULATOR

Are you Chubby FIRE — and what's your number?

Chubby FIRE is the comfortable middle of financial independence — more than a frugal budget, short of luxury. Type your spending and the calculator below resolves both questions at once: your tier, and your number. No sign-up, no gated answer.

YOUR NUMBERS
Safe withdrawal rateThe share of your portfolio you can withdraw each year without running out. 4% is the Trinity-Study baseline (25×); 3.5% is the long-horizon convention (28.6×) for an early retirement.
4% is the Trinity-Study baseline; 3.5% is the long-horizon convention.
Expected return (nominal)Expected average annual return before inflation. 10% is the long-run U.S. stock-market average with dividends; dial to 7% for a conservative case.10.0%
InflationHow fast prices rise each year. We subtract it from your return so every number on the page stays in today's dollars.3.0%
Real return after inflation: 6.8%Your tier: Chubby FIRE · number $3M
YOUR CHUBBY FIRE NUMBER
$3,000,000
You're 23.0 years from Chubby FIRE.
Years to FI23.0
On track to hit it in2050 · age 59
The multiple (4% SWR)25× spending

Your number is just spending ÷ 4%. The date is set by what you invest each year — change the contribution and watch the line below move.

WHERE YOU LAND · 4% / 25×$120,000/yr → Chubby
Lean
< $1M
Regular FIRE
$1M–$2M
Chubby
$2M–$3.75M
Fat
$3.75M+

Tiers by annual spending, FIRE number at the current multiple. The band is the synthesized consensus — Chubby is the comfortable middle, roughly $80k–$150k of spending, about $2M–$4M invested.

NET WORTH ON THE WAY TO YOUR NUMBER
$0$1.25M$2.5M$3.75M$5M354045505559AGE →CHUBBY FIRE NUMBER · $3MFI · 2050 · age 59
Your net worthFIRE number
That's your number.
The app tracks your real net worth against it as your accounts grow.
Get FIRE Projection

Chubby number by annual spending

AT 4% · 25×
Annual spendingTierFIRE number
$80,000/yrChubby$2,000,000
$100,000/yrChubby$2,500,000
$120,000/yryouChubby$3,000,000
$140,000/yrChubby$3,500,000
$150,000/yrFat$3,750,000

The whole Chubby band at a 4% withdrawal rate — your number is simply spending ÷ 4%. Drop to a 3.5% rate for a longer horizon and every figure rises by about 14%.

THE SHORT ANSWER

What is Chubby FIRE?

Chubby FIRE is the comfortable middle of the FIRE spectrum — financial independence with room to breathe, but short of luxury. It sits between Lean FIRE (full independence on a frugal budget) and Fat FIRE (independence with no spending constraints). In practice it means a household spending roughly $80,000 to $150,000 a year, backed by a portfolio of about $2M to $4M.

The confusing part is that nobody agrees on the band. You'll find Chubby defined as $60k–$100k of spending in one place and $100k–$200k in another; net-worth targets range from $1.5M to $5M. That ambiguity is exactly why the calculator above leads with a clear answer: type your spending, and it resolves both questions at once — are you Chubby, and what's your number?

Chubby FIRE isn't a fixed dollar figure. It's your spending — comfortable, not extravagant — times 25.
WHERE IT SITS

Chubby on the FIRE spectrum

FIRE isn't one finish line — it's a spectrum of how much you spend in retirement, and therefore how big a portfolio you need. Chubby is the friendly middle: more than a lean, bare-bones budget, but well short of the fat, no-limits version.

TierAnnual spendFIRE number (25× / 4%)
Lean< $40kunder ~$1M
Regular FIRE$40k – $80k$1M – $2M
Chubbychubby~$80k – $150k~$2M – $4M
Fat$150k +$5M +

Sources disagree on the exact band — you'll see $60k–$100k, $80k–$150k, and $100k–$200k quoted. These are the synthesized middle. The spectrum by the calculator lights up your tier as you change spending.

Including the regular-FIRE row matters — Chubby is what you get when an ordinary FIRE budget grows into a genuinely comfortable one. The biggest comparison, Chubby vs Fat, is below.

THE MATH

How to calculate your Chubby FIRE number

There's only one formula, and it's the same 25× rule behind every flavor of FIRE — your annual spending divided by a safe withdrawal rate:

FIRE number=Annual spending ÷ SWR
4% SWR → 25×  ·  3.5% → 28.6× (longer horizon)

To get the date, project what you have invested forward at your expected return, adding your annual contribution each year, until the balance reaches that number:

Years to FI=ln[(FIRE# + C/r) / (P + C/r)] / ln(1 + r)
P = current assetsC = annual contributionr = real return after inflation
WORKED EXAMPLE · THE DEFAULT
  • Spends$120,000 / year
  • Chubby number (25× at 4%)$3,000,000
  • Invested today$200,000
  • Invests each year$40,000
  • 10% return − 3% inflationr ≈ 6.8%
  • Reaches $3.0M in≈ 23 years

Switch the withdrawal rate to 3.5% and the target climbs to $3.43M — about 25 years on the same contributions. A lower rate buys a longer-lasting portfolio at the cost of a bigger number. Raise the contribution and that date pulls in fast.

THE TARGET

How much you actually need

At a 4% withdrawal rate, a Chubby budget lands between $2M and $3.75M ($80k–$150k of spending × 25). Want a longer safety margin? A 3.5% rate — the long-horizon convention for someone retiring in their 40s or 50s with a 40+ year runway — lifts the same band to roughly $2.3M–$4.3M (× 28.6). The toggle on the calculator switches between the two live.

Single vs. couple. The number is driven by spending, not headcount — so a couple spending $120k together needs the same $3M as a solo spender at $120k. Couples often land in Chubby naturally: two people sharing housing and overhead spend less per person, but their combined comfortable budget pushes the household into the $80k–$150k range. Two incomes also tend to reach the number years sooner.

Watching your net worth climb toward a $3M target for years is the hard part. That's what the app is for.See the app →
THE BIG COMPARISON

Chubby FIRE vs. Fat FIRE

This is the comparison that actually keeps people up at night, because it's the one with real lifestyle stakes. Chubby FIRE is a comfortable-but-considered life: nice travel, a paid-off house, no anxiety about a restaurant bill — but you still notice a $40k splurge. Fat FIRE removes the last constraint: first-class everything, a second home, giving at scale — and a number to match, typically $5M and up.

The gap is enormous in time, not just dollars. Moving your target spending from $120k to $200k roughly doubles the wait on the same savings — which is why most people who think they want Fat FIRE discover Chubby buys back the years that matter.

FatThe no-limits end — $150k+ of spending, about $5M and up. Fat FIRE calculator →
LeanThe frugal, earliest exit — under $40k of spending, under ~$1M. Lean FIRE calculator →
CoastStop contributing and let existing investments grow into the number on their own. Coast FIRE calculator →
BaristaPart-time work covers some spending; investments cover the rest. Barista FIRE calculator →
WhenJust want the date you can retire on your numbers? When can I retire? →
THE HONEST PART

Who Chubby FIRE is for — and who it isn't

It fits people who want a genuinely comfortable retirement without chasing the biggest possible number — high earners and diligent savers who could push toward Fat FIRE but would rather reclaim a decade of their life. It's the pragmatic target for a dual-income household that lives well but not lavishly.

It's a weaker fit if your spending genuinely requires a Fat budget (don't under-target your real life), or if a Lean approach would get you free years sooner and you'd happily live on less. And the standard caveat applies harder the earlier you retire: sequence-of-returns risk — a market crash in your first few retired years does outsized damage — which is exactly why a 3.5% rate, or a cash buffer, is worth considering for a long Chubby runway.

WORKS IN YOUR FAVOR
  • A genuinely comfortable life — no constant budgeting.
  • Reached years earlier than Fat FIRE on the same income.
  • Room to absorb surprises a Lean budget can't.
  • Flexible: trim spending in a bad year and the plan holds.
THE TRADE-OFFS
  • A $2M–$4M number takes real time and income to build.
  • Less margin than Fat FIRE if costs balloon late in life.
  • Sequence-of-returns risk over a long early-retirement runway.
  • Healthcare before Medicare is a real line item to plan for.
METHODOLOGY · WHAT THIS ASSUMES

How the math works

One model, in today's dollars. The number is rate arithmetic; the date projects your portfolio forward at your expected return, adding your contribution each year until it reaches the target. Every figure is a field you can change.

ASSUMPTIONS THIS USES
  • 25× rule — FIRE number = annual spending ÷ SWR; a 4% rate is 25×, 3.5% is 28.6×.
  • 4% default safe withdrawal rate — the Trinity Study baseline; toggle 3.5% for a longer horizon.
  • 10% default expected return, netted against 3% inflation — a real return of about 6.8%, so the number and the projection both stay in today's dollars; dial to 7% for a conservative case.
  • Tier bands — Lean < $40k · Regular $40–80k · Chubby $80–150k · Fat $150k+, the synthesized consensus.
  • All figures are pre-tax and in today's dollars. The number and the projection share one axis.

Full methodology & sources →

Educational, not financial advice. Markets don't return a steady 10%, sequence-of-returns risk is real over a long early-retirement runway, and your result will differ. Use this to build intuition and frame the question — not as a plan to act on without your own judgment or a professional's.

FIRE PROJECTION · iOS

Size the number here. Watch it close in the app.

This page resolves the Chubby question — your tier, your number, your date. The app does the other half: it tracks your real net worth against your FIRE number over time, so you can watch the gap close as your accounts actually grow.

  • Net worth vs. your FIRE number — every account against the target, tracked over time.
  • Spending → 25× → projection — the same core math, kept live as you log real balances.
  • Check in and watch the trend — FIRE stops being a one-time guess.

Straight talk: the app has no SWR slider and no Lean/Chubby/Fat flavor concept — that band-resolution math lives here, on this page. The app is for tracking your number and net worth over time, not for modelling Chubby FIRE specifically.

QR code to the FIRE Projection App Store listing
SCAN FOR
THE APP STORE
QUESTIONS

Chubby FIRE questions, answered

What is the Chubby FIRE number?
It's the portfolio size that lets a comfortable-but-not-lavish budget run on safe withdrawals indefinitely — annual spending ÷ your safe withdrawal rate. At a 4% rate that's spending × 25, so a $120,000 budget is a $3,000,000 number.
How much money do you need for Chubby FIRE?
Roughly $2M to $4M invested, corresponding to about $80,000–$150,000 of annual spending at a 4% withdrawal rate. The exact figure is your own spending × 25 (or × 28.6 at a 3.5% rate). Use the calculator with your real number.
What counts as Chubby FIRE vs. regular or Fat FIRE?
Sources vary, but the working consensus is: Lean under ~$40k of spending, regular FIRE $40k–$80k, Chubby $80k–$150k, and Fat $150k and up. Chubby is the comfortable middle — independence with room to breathe, short of Fat FIRE's no-limits budget.
Is Chubby FIRE the same as $2.5 million?
Only if you spend $100,000 a year at a 4% rate. Chubby isn't a single dollar figure — it's a band. The point of the calculator is to turn your spending into your number rather than anchoring on a round figure someone else quoted.
Should I use a 4% or 3.5% withdrawal rate?
4% is the Trinity-Study baseline for a ~30-year retirement. If you're retiring early with a 40+ year horizon, many planners prefer 3.5% (a 28.6× multiple) for a wider safety margin against sequence-of-returns risk. The toggle lets you see both; the trade-off is a bigger number for a longer-lasting plan.
How long does it take to reach Chubby FIRE?
It depends entirely on what you start with and what you save. On the default — $200k invested, $40k a year added, a 10% return against 3% inflation (≈6.8% real) toward a $3M target — about 23 years. Raise the contribution or the return and the date moves in fast; the projection chart shows exactly where.
Does Chubby FIRE differ for a couple?
The number tracks spending, not headcount — a couple spending $120k together needs the same $3M as a solo spender at $120k. Couples often reach it sooner, though, because shared overhead lowers per-person spending and two incomes build the portfolio faster.
Does this calculator include taxes, Social Security, or inflation?
Figures are pre-tax and in today's dollars, which keeps the model transparent. Social Security and a pension reduce what your portfolio must cover, so leaving them out keeps the estimate conservative. Account for your own taxes separately, and treat the result as a clear baseline, not a filed plan.
FIRE PROJECTION
This page answers it once.
Get the app